Heads I'm Right, Tails It Was Chance: The Strange Case of Irrationality in Program Risk Management

Abstract

There s a difference between having lung cancer (an issue) and living in a way that increases the probability of contracting lung cancer (risk). The former requires treatment, the later requires actions to lower the probability. Some of these mitigations are exercising, increasing intake of healthy food, or quitting smoking. However, we all know people who smoke, don t exercise, or consistently eat one too many desserts despite knowing the risks. Irrational? Yes. Explainable? Largely. Like those who irrationally continue in risky life choices, sometimes acquisition professionals persist, consciously or not, in managing programs without adequately rationalizing our understanding of programmatic risks. Many times we place ourselves in the thick of thin things at the expense of long-term program success. Often, though, we allow our internal biases and fallacious thinking to skew objective thinking of risks.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 2013
Accession Number
ADA608787

Entities

People

  • Christopher W. Parry

Organizations

  • Defense Acquisition University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Brain
  • Business Administration
  • Cancer
  • Electronic Mail
  • Fire Prevention
  • Foreign Military Sales
  • Lung Cancer
  • Military Acquisition
  • Personnel Management
  • Probability
  • Program Management
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Risk Management
  • Students
  • Thinking

Readers

  • Aviation Safety Risk Assessment.
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Educational Psychology