A Reliability Approach to Risk Assessment and Analysis of Alternatives (Based on a Ground-Vehicle Example)
Abstract
Based on historical data, a large percentage of U.S. military systems struggle to achieve their reliability requirements, resulting in significant penalties, such as decreased system availability, increased life-cycle costs, and schedule delays. These impacts are all applicable to studies of Risk Assessment and Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) which assess technical, schedule, and cost risks. In order to effectively analyze the reliability risks for programs of interest in a Risk Assessment or AoA, a new approach has been developed. The recently adopted approach consists of four separate techniques that can be used individually or collectively to inform decision makers and positively improve defense acquisition: 1. Assess the reliability estimates of similar systems to gauge the feasibility of the reliability requirement and the likelihood of achieving it. 2. Conduct an assessment using the U.S. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA) Reliability Scorecard to determine the adequacy of the overall reliability program through a quantitative risk score. 3. Create a realistic Reliability Growth Planning Curve (RGPC) using AMSAA s Planning Model based on Projection Methodology (PM2) and gauge the associated risks using AMSAA s RGPC Risk Assessment Matrix. 4. Examine the impact of the reliability requirement on test duration and Operations & Support (O&S) life-cycle costs.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 2013
- Accession Number
- ADA608856
Entities
People
- Shawn P. Brady
Organizations
- United States Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity