A Framework for the Statistical Analysis of Probability of Mission Success Based on Bayesian Theory

Abstract

The Mission Success Prediction Capability (MSPC) is a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach to mission planning, used for analysis of complex systems of precision strike (air-to-surface) weapons. This report focuses on developing a statistical method for evaluating the probability of mission success in these situations. Bayesian networks are used as a framework for calculation of the probability in question, and a general methodology for the evaluation is formed and demonstrated in this report.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 2014
Accession Number
ADA610732

Entities

People

  • Vanessa Glenny

Organizations

  • Defence Science and Technology Group

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Bayesian Inference
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Complex Systems
  • Computational Science
  • Delphi Method
  • Engineering
  • Fuzzy Logic
  • Model Based Systems Engineering
  • Neural Networks
  • Precision
  • Probabilistic Models
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Systems Engineering

Fields of Study

  • Computer science

Readers

  • Missile Defense Systems.
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Software Engineering.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - DoD AI Strategy