PRELIM: Predictive Relevance Estimation from Linked Models

Abstract

PRELIM (Predictive Relevance Estimation from Linked Models) draws on semantic models provided by some members of the PDS team to generate forecasts and estimates of value of information (VOI) for use by other members of the team. The central challenge in proactive decision support is to anticipate the decision and information needs of decision-makers, in the light of likely future developments in a scenario. In many cases, this anticipation does not require sophisticated forecasting, but can be triggered by simple decision rules (e.g, "If a typhoon is moving toward the Philippines, identify the state of Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Recovery resources within a 1000 mile radius"). Such an approach corresponds to automation of elements of recognition-primed decision-making. However, some cases may go beyond patterns that are readily learned from past experience, and require a forecasting mode of reasoning that in people is called explanation-based reasoning. Several conditions that require proactivity and prediction, including: * The need to preposition assets, materiel, or information because of intrinsic timelags; * Indications of unlikely but high value future events that cannot yet be perceived (the typical indications and warnings scenario); * Estimation of second and third order responses in developing Blue COAs. This document summarizes the technical work done on Contract N00014-14-P-1185 to advance the PRELIM vision. It includes: * a short narrative that describes how someone would benefit from using the PRELIM technology as part of a Proactive Decision Support System; * a technology roadmap that describes the science / technology that needs to exist to realize the PRELIM vision; * a description of the science research and/or theory that needs to be done to create make these technologies real.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 14, 2014
Accession Number
ADA610914

Entities

People

  • H. Van Dyke Parunak

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Sensors
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Computers
  • Construction
  • Contracts
  • Decision Support Systems
  • Delphi Method
  • Digital Communications
  • Information Systems
  • Instructions
  • Models
  • Networks
  • Probability
  • Reasoning
  • Seal Teams
  • Semantic Models
  • Tablet Computers
  • Trajectories
  • Transportation Infrastructure

Fields of Study

  • Computer science

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Maritime Combat Support and Expeditionary Logistics.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.