Efficient Probability Sequences

Abstract

A probability sequence is an ordered set of probability forecasts for the same event. Although single-period probabilistic forecasts and methods for evaluating them have been extensively analyzed, we are not aware of any prior work on evaluating probability sequences. This paper proposes an efficiency condition for probability sequences and shows properties of efficient forecasting systems including memorylessness and increasing discrimination. These results suggest tests for efficiency and remedial interventions for inefficient systems.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 18, 2014
Accession Number
ADA612824

Entities

People

  • Eva Regnier

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Atmospheric Sciences
  • Data Science
  • Delphi Method
  • Discrimination
  • Economics
  • Information Science
  • Meteorology
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Random Variables
  • Reliability
  • Sequences
  • Standards
  • Statistical Tests
  • Statistics
  • Surveys
  • Weather Forecasting

Readers

  • Operations Research
  • Statistical inference.