Elections and Social Conflict in Africa
Abstract
Using the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD), CCAPS researchers examine elections in authoritarian systems versus those with additional democratic checks and balances to assess the relationship between elections and unrest. Through statistical models, the authors find that, during civil wars, elections are associated with four times more unrest than in non-election periods--a very significant increase in conflict. But there is not a statistically significant increase in the number of deaths during elections held amidst ongoing civil war. Even more surprisingly, there is not a strong association between unrest and elections held in post-conflict periods. The authors argue that, while elections are the sine qua non of democracy, they are not sufficient to address social grievances and can aggravate societal tensions in weakly institutionalized settings. The authors' new statistical analysis provides nuanced evidence of when holding flawed elections - without constitutional safeguards in place - can make problems worse.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 2013
- Accession Number
- ADA613115
Entities
People
- Christopher Linebarger
- Idean Salehyan
Organizations
- University of Texas at Austin