Of Climate Change and Crystal Balls: The Future Consequences of Climate Change in Africa
Abstract
Using Africa as a regional focus, this article attempts to reconcile the scientific community's approach to analyzing the effects of climate change with the emerging approaches in political science for assessing the future security consequences of such change. It presents georeferenced maps of subnational climate vulnerability in Africa, using past exposure to climate-related hazards, population density, household and community resilience, and governance as well as political violence. The article couples this approach with projections of future climate change, employing an ensemble of five general circulation models and suggesting that maps of chronic vulnerability which incorporate a variety of indicators provide a helpful advance for international relations scholars. Specifically, such maps are less reliant on heroic assumptions about changes in political and economic systems than either forecasting or scenario analysis.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA613221
Entities
People
- Jay Gulledge
- Joshua W. Busby
- Kaiba White
- Todd G. Smith
Organizations
- University of Texas at Austin