The Days after a Deal with Iran: Implications for the Air Force
Abstract
This analysis begins by positing that a final nuclear agreement is reached between Iran and the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany (P5+1). (See the box on p. 2 for the assumed contours of an agreement.) One of a series of RAND reports on what the Middle East and U.S. policy might look like in the days after a deal, this Perspective examines the implications of a potential deal for the U.S. military posture and activities in the Middle East, with a focus on the U.S. Air Force (USAF).1 In the design of U.S. policies in the aftermath of a nuclear agreement, the United States will have many different instruments available, including diplomacy, political interactions, and economic incentives and disincentives. U.S. military posture and activities in the Middle East will also have a role to play in support of any agreement s implementation. For example, enhancing the USAF rotational presence in the region could signal to Iran the consequences of noncompliance, while also reassuring U.S. partners anxious about Iran s remaining nuclear infrastructure and its broader regional political and military activities. Alternatively, the United States could reduce its overt military threats against Iran to signal to Iran that it will reap benefits from complying with an agreement. Because policymakers will face a complex set of trade-offs in the design of U.S. military posture and activities in the region, now is the time to consider possible implications of a nuclear deal for the USAF that is already strained by budget pressures and an array of global commitments. The high-level policy decisions on this issue will be made at the national level, but the USAF has a critical role to play in informing senior-level policy discussions as to how the USAF military posture and activities in the region could be designed in support of alternative U.S. policies toward Iran and in assessing the implications of these alternatives for the readiness of its forces.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2015
- Accession Number
- ADA615540
Entities
People
- David E. Thaler
- Lynn E. Davis
Organizations
- RAND Corporation