Exploiting the Magnetic Origin of Solar Activity in Forecasting Thermospheric Density Variations

Abstract

A detailed understanding of solar irradiance and its variability at extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths is required to model thermospheric density and to specify and forecast satellite drag. Current operational models rely on forecasts of proxies for solar activity based on autoregression. The forecasts from these models generally degrade to climatology after only a few days. Solar magnetic fields are ultimately responsible for variations in the EUV irradiance. The evolution of solar magnetic fields is well understood and results from a combination of solar rotation, diffusion, meridional flow, and magnetic flux emergence. In this presentation we review the current state of autoregressive proxy models and compare their forecast skill against new activity models based on magnetic flux transport.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 2014
Accession Number
ADA616953

Entities

People

  • Harry Warren
  • John Emmert

Organizations

  • United States Naval Research Laboratory

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Atmospheres
  • Climatology
  • Delphi Method
  • Diffusion
  • Diffusion Coefficient
  • Flux Density
  • Magnetic Fields
  • Magnetic Flux
  • Military Research
  • Observatories
  • Personal Information Managers
  • Rotation
  • Solar Activity
  • Solar Atmosphere
  • Solar Cycle
  • Space Sciences
  • Transport Ships

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science / Meteorology, specifically Wind Wave Turbulence.
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers
  • Space Exploration and Orbital Mechanics.

Technology Areas

  • Space