Towards the Use of HYCOM in Coupled ENSO Prediction: Assessment of ENSO Skill in Forced Global HYCOM

Abstract

Coupled ocean/atmosphere variability in the tropical Pacific, through El Ni o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a major contributor to fluctuations in North American and global rainfall and temperature, including tropical cyclones, extreme rainfall events, and droughts. Prediction of ENSO beyond the few months between the occurrence of westerly wind events in the western Pacific and the equatorial warming that triggers the Bjerknes feedback has been a major challenge. The long-term goal of this project is to contribute to the development and testing of a global fully coupled prediction system for the operational US Navy. The target time scales of this system will be seasonal through interannual; an essential capability of this system will be to forecast ENSO conditions with a reasonable degree of certainty.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 30, 2014
Accession Number
ADA618049

Entities

People

  • Bruce D. Cornuelle
  • Julie L. McClean

Organizations

  • University of California Regents

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Amplitude
  • Atmospheric Sciences
  • California
  • Grids
  • Ice
  • Information Operations
  • Low Resolution
  • Observation
  • Oceanography
  • Oceans
  • Physical Oceanography
  • Sea Ice
  • Sea Surface Temperature
  • Simulations
  • Surface Temperature
  • Tropical Cyclones

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers