Developing a Methodology for Risk-Informed Trade-Space Analysis in Acquisition

Abstract

This report documents the results of the project Developing a Methodology Framework for Conducting Risk-Informed Trade Space Analyses. The primary objective of this study was to develop a framework and acquisition risk-assessment tool that conducts schedule, funding, and performance trades for a given materiel alternative and that provides the consequences of these trades in terms of quantifiable risk. The U.S. Army has a process by which it can assess the risk and performance of a given analysis-of-alternatives (AoA) alternative; however, it does not have a robust quantitative framework to link the outcome of the AoA risk (cost, schedule, and technical) and performance assessments to consistently assess the impact of a schedule, funding, or performance trade among alternatives. This report describes the methodology for the risk-informed trade space jointly developed by the U.S. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA) Risk Team and RAND Corporation researchers and the first iteration of the associated Risk-Informed Trade Analysis Model (RTRAM). The framework and model allow users to investigate multidimensional trade-offs both within and between weapon systems prior to production using elements of system engineering, production economics, and risk analysis to functionally and probabilistically relate performance, schedule, and cost outcomes and their related uncertainties holistically and understandably. The framework should be useful to those who wish to compare joint performance, schedule, and cost outcomes and uncertainties in an acquisition environment such as that described by an AoA. It is not intended to provide recommendations for a particular system over others. Rather, it is a decision-support methodology that allows users to investigate multidimensional tradeoffs both within and between weapon systems prior to production.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2015
Accession Number
ADA618204

Entities

People

  • Craig A. Bond
  • James G. Kallimani
  • Lauren A. Mayer
  • Michael E. Mcmahon
  • Ricardo Sanchez

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Engineered Resilient Systems
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Aircrafts
  • Basic Programming Language
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Delphi Method
  • Distribution Functions
  • Economic Analysis
  • Economics
  • Military Acquisition
  • Military Procurement
  • Organizational Structure
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Risk Analysis
  • Spreadsheet Software
  • Systems Engineering

Readers

  • Aviation Safety Risk Assessment.
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Systems Analysis and Design

Technology Areas

  • Space