Deduction as Stochastic Simulation

Abstract

Many theorists argue that deduction is based on the construction of mental models or simulations of descriptions. Individuals tend to reason intuitively from a single mental model, but on occasion they make a deliberate search for alternative models. Previous computer implementations of the theory were deterministic, but evidence from empirical studies suggested that a stochastic algorithm would have greater predictive power. We present such a system for inferences from assertions with single quantifiers, such as ???All the agents are lawyers???. This system implements constraints on the size of model, the sorts of individual it represents, and on the likelihood of a search for alternative models. We show that the system yields quantitative predictions at a fine-grained level, and that they fit the data from two experiments better than previous accounts.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 2013
Accession Number
ADA618987

Entities

People

  • J. Gregory Trafton
  • P. N. Johnson-laird
  • Sangeet Khemlani

Organizations

  • United States Naval Research Laboratory

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Algorithms
  • Cognition
  • Cognitive Science
  • Construction
  • Errors
  • Intervals
  • Language
  • Military Research
  • Model Theory
  • Models
  • New York
  • Probability
  • Psychology
  • Reasoning
  • Simulations
  • Statistical Analysis

Readers

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference