Nuclear Hell On Wheels Examining The Need For A Mobile ICBM
Abstract
The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review calls upon the Department of Defense to examine alternate basing modes for the nation's land-based leg of the triad. The Nuclear Posture Review presumes that the survivability of mobile ICBMs may eliminate the paradox faced by the President when presented with indications of nuclear attack. Namely, the President must choose to "use or lose" silo-based ICBMs, resulting in an increased risk of miscalculation in a time-constrained environment. This paper examines the validity of this rationale in two attack scenarios, and concludes that the Nuclear Posture Review does not account for the vulnerability of the President and the nuclear command and control system in the face of a surprise attack. The final section of the paper examines the conditions that must be present in order to favor the fielding of a US mobile ICBM force. The first condition is a change in vulnerability of the SSBN force, causing its survivability to be questioned. The second condition is the emergence of a credible conventional threat to the US silo-based ICBM force. The third condition is a shift in US nuclear strategy from counterforce to countervalue, to include the adoption of a minimum credible deterrence posture. The fourth condition is increased risk of miscalculation in a launch on warning scenario, specifically a false warning event that degrades confidence in the US early warning system. Finally, a collapse of restraints imposed by current arms control agreements could spur an arms race, changing the level of acceptable vulnerability for the land-based leg of the triad.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 17, 2015
- Accession Number
- ADA620283
Entities
People
- Matthew E. Dillow
Organizations
- Air War College