North Korea's Choice of the Types of Provocation Against South Korea
Abstract
This research starts from the question of how North Korea decides upon the types of its provocations against the South. To find the answer, the author divides the major provocations into three periods, according to their characteristics, and examines how the major decisive factors of the North's crisis policy making, such as military strength, relations with China and the Soviet Union (Russia), regime stability, and economic power, affected its choice of provocation types. The results of the analysis suggest that Pyongyang has chosen the targets, scale, and methods of provocation by thoroughly evaluating its current military, diplomatic, political, and economic conditions. Therefore, what types of provocations will be initiated by North Korea in the future? One of the obvious points is that Pyongyang's confidence to defeat Seoul will not be restored soon, and the unexpected strong response of the United States and South Korea will confuse the North s strategic decision making. For that reason, the most effective way for South Korea to deter any possible provocations by the North is to put more pressure on the Kim regime by using its overwhelming national power and conveying its strong intention to retaliate against the North s threats on the basis of the firm ROK-U.S. military alliance.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 2013
- Accession Number
- ADA621363
Entities
People
- Hyun H. Lee
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School