Deconstructing Afghanistan: How Does America's Past Inform Afghanistan's Future?
Abstract
This study suggests a path for Afghanistan s post-2014 future based on the post Civil War experience of the US South. A comparative history of both societies reveals the common presence of three foundational traits: highly differentiated class structures, ethnically and economically diverse societal mosaics, and a belief in peripheral and societal autonomy. I assess the prospects for either renewed civil war or stable peace in Afghanistan after US and coalition military forces complete their withdrawal. The study concludes that Afghanistan s fate rests with the Afghan people and not the international community, despite the weight of effort expended by the US and coalition nations since October 2001. Furthermore, regardless of the near universal assumption by pundits, politicians, and academics, this comparison with the South after April 1865 suggests that a significant possibility exists for political reconciliation with Taliban leaders, sustained peace, and stable, albeit slow, economic growth. Secondary findings suggest that Afghanistan s historical existence as a rentier state will persist at least through 2025; social modernization efforts imposed by external influence, including gender equality, are likely to regress in future years; and the vast economic disparities resident in Afghan society will persist indefinitely.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2015
- Accession Number
- ADA621582
Entities
People
- Marc E. Greene
Organizations
- Air University