2015 Marine Corps Security Environment Forecast: Futures 2030-2045
Abstract
Predicting the future is problematic. For this reason, ambiguity is the lifeblood of psychics, soothsayers, and all prognosticators for profit; it facilitates their not being wrong. Ambiguity, however, is not very useful in strategic planning. Moreover, humans seem to have an inexorable drive to make precise predictions.4 This trait apparently leads even the most accomplished, informed, and farsighted experts to cast prudence aside and offer bold predictions about the future. During the infancy of computers and in particular personal computers, the future of computer technology was uncertain. Still, this did not discourage Ken Olsen, co-founder and chief executive officer of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), from famously asserting during a talk at a 1977 meeting of the World Future Society, "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home."5 Olsen was not apparently referring to personal computers, which would have been ironic and counterintuitive since DEC was a leading producer of the first successful predecessors to the personal computer. Instead, Olsen was talking about computers that would regulate features of the home such as lighting, temperature, and security systems. He was essentially dismissing what we now refer to as an internet of things, 6 in which ADT, AT&T, Google, and Verizon, to name just a few, are today finding lucrative business opportunities.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2015
- Accession Number
- ADA623283
Entities
Organizations
- Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory