Strategic State Estimation in Uncertain and Mixed Multiagent Environments

Abstract

Human judgment of uncertainty suffers from various cognitive biases. In the military context, operators of autonomous vehicles such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) may assess probabilities at levels that are not objectively justified. Some of the psychological issues that affect probability judgment include inaccuracy in verbally reporting probabilities and a lack of honesty in expressing the true probability assessments. The objectives of this project were to take bold and critical steps toward establishing field-valid probability assessment and update techniques using a realistically simulated UAV setting. Furthermore, the project studied and computationally modeled validated static probability assessments and probability updates. The research was performed by a multi-disciplinary team consisting of faculties in computer science, cognitive psychology and statistics. Five psychological studies investigated the presence of cognitive biases in judgment and techniques to obtain valid probability assessments in a laboratory setting.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 26, 2015
Accession Number
ADA623943

Entities

People

  • Adam Goodie
  • Dan Hall
  • Matthew Miesel
  • Prashant Doshi
  • Roi Ceren

Organizations

  • University of Georgia

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Autonomy

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Aircrafts
  • Autonomous Vehicles
  • Computational Science
  • Computer Science
  • Computer Simulations
  • Department Of Defense
  • Engineering
  • Flight Simulators
  • Judgment
  • Probability
  • Psychology
  • Statistics
  • Students
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
  • Unmanned Vehicles
  • Vehicles

Readers

  • Regression Analysis.
  • Systems Analysis and Design
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.

Technology Areas

  • Autonomy
  • Autonomy - Human-Robot Interaction