Theoretical Analysis of Predictability and Sensitivity for Ocean Circulation Models Based on Primitive Hydrodynamic Equations

Abstract

This project addressed the following aspects of ocean model predictability: (i) using the first passage time conception as the theoretical tool for the quantitative analysis of model predictability skill; (ii) calculating a low-order statistics of the prediction skill for the Princeton Oceanographic Model (POM) applied for modeling of shallow-water wind driven circulation in a semi-closed basin; (iii) comparison of numerical and analytical methods, such as the ensemble prediction technique (EPT) , singular vectors (SV) and iterative analytical solution of Pontryagin Kolmogorov equation (PKE); (iv) introducing a new measure (sensitivity indexes) for the sensitive analysis of numerical oceanographic models; (v) the analysis of contributions of different kinds of uncertainties such as errors in initial data, stochastic variations of wind and normal velocity along an open boundary into the losing of model predictability skill.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 30, 2001
Accession Number
ADA625254

Entities

People

  • Leonid M. Ivanov
  • Peter Cheng Chu

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Boundaries
  • Differential Equations
  • Equations
  • High Resolution
  • Kolmogorov Equations
  • Ocean Currents
  • Oceans
  • Order Statistics
  • Physical Oceanography
  • Probabilistic Models
  • Probability
  • Random Variables
  • Sensitivity
  • Shallow Water
  • Statistics
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Wind Stress

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation