Statistical Approach to the Operational Testing of Space Fence
Abstract
Space Fence will be a terrestrial-based radar designed to perform surveillance on earth-orbiting objects. Its capabilities will increase the number of objects tracked from approximately 17,000 to over 100,000. Testing a system whose complete set of observations cannot be verified in a timely manner by existing systems presents challenges for gathering detection and accuracy truth data while ensuring a reasonable test duration. We propose a rigorous statistical test design with candidate on-orbit test targets that span orbital limits defined by Space Fence operational requirements. We characterize system performance across the entire operational envelope by using relatively small subsets (containing no more than 1530 satellites) of the public Satellite Catalog (SATCAT) grouped by altitude, inclination, and size. We identify the type and number of on-orbit test targets needed for evaluating metric accuracy, probability of track, object correlation, small object sensitivity, and data latency. Our method quantifies the probabilities of meeting requirements, determines how performance varies as a function of an object???s altitude, inclination and/or size, estimates a 25-day test duration, and determines that modeling and simulation methods may be needed to represent 125 additional satellites. These results provide testers and users a mathematical basis of evaluation for Space Fence employment decisions.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 2015
- Accession Number
- ADA626706
Entities
People
- Daniel L. Pechkis
- Nelson S. Pacheco
- Tye W. Botting
Organizations
- Institute for Defense Analyses