Predictability Assessment and Improving Ensemble Forecasts
Abstract
The PI is examining atmospheric predictability with the goal of improving ensemble forecasts at ranges of 12 hours to 10 days. The research is addressing several issues, including: * Documentation of analysis uncertainty from mesoscale and global analyses. * Calibration of output from ensemble forecast systems (EFS's) by artificial neural networks. * Design of optimal EFS's for precipitation. * Design of stochastic physics parameterizations that improve EFS performance. The PI also serves as Co-Chief Scientist to Dr. Scott Sandgathe for ONR initiative on Predictability in the Atmosphere and Ocean.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 2001
- Accession Number
- ADA627304
Entities
People
- Mary M. Poulton
- Steven L. Mullen
Organizations
- University of Arizona