Improvement of Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction for Coastal Regions of Complex Terrain FY2003
Abstract
LONG-TERM GOALS. The long-term goals of this effort are two-fold: (1) to improve understanding of gap flows and other coastal orographic features using both observations and numerical modeling, and (2) to evaluate the effectiveness of high-resolution NWP over a region with coastal orography, using both deterministic and probabilistic (ensemble) methods. OBJECTIVES. The major scientific objectives of the project include the following: To study gap flow in and near coastal orography. This work is directed towards understanding the structures and dynamics of gap flows, as well as an evaluation of the skill of high-resolution numerical weather prediction models in realistically simulating gap winds. Particular emphasis is given to the Columbia River Gorge, a mesoscale gap with an unusually dense array of surface observations and little bottom slope. Evaluation of the value of mesoscale ensembles created by both varying initializations and model physics. Although there have been a number of studies of the ensemble approach, few have examined mesoscale ensembles over coastal regions or in areas with substantial terrain. Another objective is to test a different approach to ensemble generation: using variations in initializations and boundary conditions from the forecasts of different operational centers. To help determine the implications of a next-generation local mesoscale forecasting capability for regional Navy operational needs, and to help train Navy personnel in the use of high-resolution model forecasts.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 2003
- Accession Number
- ADA630019
Entities
People
- Clifford F. Mass
Organizations
- University of Washington