Silk or Spandex?: China's Problematic One Road, One Belt Plan to Expand its Economic Boundaries as Seen Through the Lens of American, British, and Japanese Experience
Abstract
In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled a plan for Chinese economic expansion known as the One Road One Belt plan. This "modern day silk road" would connect the PRC via seaport to the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean in one route, and from China's coast through the South China Sea to the South Pacific in the other. This thesis assesses the Chinese One Road One Belt economic plan through the historic imperial experiences of Great Britain in the nineteenth-century, Japan in the mid-twentieth century, and the United States in the latter half of the twentieth-century. The mixed methods approach-using historical sources and quantitative data sets-increases the likelihood of accuracy. Similar to the way Alfred Thayer Mahan used conditions to assess the sea power of nations, this analysis will apply three general conditions, further broken down into eight specific categories, to assess the likelihood of Chinese success. The categories include external security and the need for natural resources, which comprise the motives for expansion condition; period of industrialization, level of nationalism, and foreign policy outlook make up the form of empire condition; and internal stability, culture clash, and social inequality, make up the sustainment of empire condition. While each of these conditions and categories alone do not necessarily provide clear insight into the likely success or failure of an expansionist nation, the synthesis of the eight reveals patterns and relationships that explain why a nation's expansion fails. The results show that China is on a trajectory similar to that of Japan, which suggests an eventual collapse of their imperial ambitions and strategic openings for the United States diplomatically and economically.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 05, 2016
- Accession Number
- ADA631624
Entities
People
- Jay W. Haley
Organizations
- National Defense University