Exploring Combat Models for Non-monotonicities and Remedies

Abstract

Throughout the Department of Defense (DoD), analysts use Models and Simulations (M&S) to assist decision makers in choosing among various strategic courses of action, whether or not to purchase particular weapons systems, implement programs, and so on. The cost of these weapon systems and programs can run into billions of dollars, and there is always the possibility of lives lost. Therefore, ensuring that our models are logically coherent and provide believable results is of paramount importance. Models that contain non-monotonic output may be unbelievable to decision-makers. A model is non-monotonic if adding capability to one side, while holding everything else constant, results in a less favorable outcome for that side. When a model used to decide between alternatives exhibits non-monotonic behavior, the models validity, as well as its usefullness for analysis, may come into question.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 2002
Accession Number
ADA634850

Entities

People

  • Tom Lucas
  • William Vinyard

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Attrition
  • Coefficients
  • Combinatorial Analysis
  • Experimental Design
  • Information Operations
  • Marine Corps
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Nonlinear Systems
  • Numbers
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Sampling
  • Square Roots
  • Two Dimensional
  • United States
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Systems Analysis and Design