The Use of the Delphi Method Within the Defense Department

Abstract

The Delphi method is a new procedure devised to improve the usefulness of an intuitive judgment produced by a group of experts. Intuition is useful for judgments involving a high degree of opinion, such as value judgments and some forecasting applications. Analytical forecasting techniques are compared briefly with conventional intuitive methods, which are further compared with the Delphi method. The Delphi method ix explored in considerable detail including a survey fo experimental results and practical applications. Conclusions are provided concerning the applications of Delphi within DoD, with particular emphasis on technological forecasting applications.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1974
Accession Number
ADA955707

Entities

People

  • Gerald F. Elsbernd

Organizations

  • Air University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Business Administration
  • Civil Defense
  • Corporations
  • Delphi Method
  • Department Of Defense
  • Education
  • Governments
  • Mental Processes
  • National Governments
  • Organizational Structure
  • Personality
  • Students
  • United States
  • United States Government
  • Ussr
  • War Colleges

Readers

  • Business Analytics
  • Instructional Design and Training Evaluation.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.