An Improved Methodology for Reliability Growth Projections

Abstract

The most common procedure in practice for making reliability projections utilizes engineering assessments of the effectiveness of the delayed fixes for each observed problem failure mode. These effectiveness factors are then used with data generated during the test phase to obtain a projected estimate for the updated configuration by adjusting the number of failures observed during the test phase. We call this method the adjustment procedure (AP). In this report, we study the accuracy associated with the AP for reliability projections. Results of this study show that there are two sources of error associated with the AP. The consequence of these errors is that the AP is overly optimistic, generating projected values which on average, over- estimate the system reliability. In particular, it was found that even when the effectiveness factors are known exactly, the AP will still overestimate the system reliability. A procedure is developed in this report for estimating the error term of the AP.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1982
Accession Number
ADB069698

Entities

People

  • Larry H. Crow

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Ground and Sea Platforms

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Classification
  • Complex Systems
  • Computer Simulations
  • Department Of Defense
  • Electronic Equipment
  • Engineering
  • Equations
  • Errors
  • Failure Mode And Effect Analysis
  • High Reliability
  • Probability
  • Random Variables
  • Reliability
  • Simulations
  • Systems Analysis
  • Test And Evaluation

Fields of Study

  • Engineering

Readers

  • Public Financial Management and Budgeting
  • Regression Analysis.