Time Series Analysis

Abstract

This article addresses some of the concerns and questions about the use of time series analysis and covers some of the simpler, but useful techniques. To begin, time series analysis techniques are not deterministic techniques. Unlike regression, they do not reflect a causing relationship. Instead, they all take advantage of a pattern over time. In time series analysis, it is recognized that there are many causing variables. It we expect their magnitudes and effects to remain, we can accept that the net effect of all those variables can be summarized by the changing pattern of cost over time. We thus use time as a stand-in for all the causing variables. We believe that future costs can be predicted based on the pattern formed by past costs. When this sort of pattern over time has developed, and we believe that all the causing variables will continue to exert the same forces and move along their same paths, then time series analysis techniques provide an excellent alternative for the analyst.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1982
Accession Number
ADP001242

Entities

People

  • Roland D. Kankey

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Cost Analysis
  • Costs
  • Data Science
  • Delphi Method
  • Department Of Defense
  • Equations
  • Fuel Consumption
  • Governments
  • Information Science
  • Intervals
  • Rate Of Consumption
  • Statistics
  • Time Series Analysis

Readers

  • Educational Psychology
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Theoretical Analysis.