An Application of the Causal-Integrative Model,

Abstract

Historical analyses of program acquisitions indicate that the probability of cost growth and/or schedule slippages is high. Many research efforts have been directed at identifying the causal factors leading to these changes in program performance. Much of the research has been devoted to modeling the acquisition process with the goal being a more effective control of program performance. A common observation of researchers is that the acquisition process is a complex and interrelated set of events. As such, any comprehensive model that claims to represent this process must reflect these interrelated activities, many of which can be described by feedback loops. This paper discusses one such model that utilizes the Systems Dynamics approach to simulation to portray the processes that form collectively the program acquisition cycle. The Causal-Integrative Model (CIM) was just presented in its conceptual form at the Management of Risk and Uncertainty Symposium in February, 1981, at the U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorado. This paper reports on the computer-based operational form of the CIM. The results of applying the computerized model to one acquisition program are presented. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1983
Accession Number
ADP002786

Entities

People

  • I. A. Somers
  • P. C. Gardiner

Organizations

  • University of Southern California

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Air Force
  • Colorado
  • Computers
  • Dynamics
  • Feedback
  • Governments
  • Observation
  • Probability
  • Procurement
  • Simulations
  • Simulators
  • Synergism
  • Uncertainty
  • United States Air Force Academy
  • Virginia

Readers

  • Computer Science.
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Systems Analysis and Design