Regional and Alliance Implications of Evolving Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula
Abstract
North Korea’s nuclear posture is likely to evolve over the next decade in ways that make conflict on the Korean Peninsula more likely. Although researchers have begun to identify and explore some tentative U.S.-ROK steps to deter or defeat North Korean threats, they have not yet addressed the cascading implications of these changes for peace and security in Northeast Asia. The objective of this project is to analyze a range of U.S.-ROK and Japanese options to respond to North Korean nuclear developments, assess what those options imply for the potential for conflict on the Korean Peninsula, and identify potential impacts on Japanese and Chinese policy. The research methodology will involve development of a typology of potential responses, whose stability implications will be evaluated through expert elicitation in Seoul, Tokyo, and Beijing. The expected result of the research is an improved understanding of Chinese, Japanese, and Korean assessments about deterrence and escalation on the Korean Peninsula. This research serves the public by informing U.S. and broader Asian scholarly and policy debates on avoiding war on the Korean Peninsula. The research will be published in reports by the Carnegie Endowment and briefed to expert audiences in Seoul, Tokyo, Beijing and Washington.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Oct 17, 2018
- Source ID
- FA70001710011
Entities
People
- Toby Dalton
Organizations
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Defense Threat Reduction Agency
- United States Air Force Academy