Escalation by Tweet: The Impact of Emerging Technologies and Social Media on Crisis Escalation and Communication
Abstract
This project will rewrite Herman Kahn’s escalation ladder1 to incorporate modern technology and communication, particularly social media. Recent Twitter activity by U.S. President Donald Trump and other world leaders has demonstrated the impact of social media on strategic communications and strategic stability. Additionally, new technologies such as hypersonic glide vehicles are increasing the speed at which conflict can escalate and reducing the time for de-escalatory signalling. Both of these trends are exacerbated during a crisis when decision-makers are short on time and information, and potentially under increased emotional and political stress. Re-establishing deterrence and assurance under such circumstances is particularly challenging, and social media, in particular, can play either a stabilizing or de-stabilizing role. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), along with its allies as part of NATO, are in need of a toolkit for signalling amidst crisis escalation, particularly at the lower levels of conflict. Current scholarship either approaches this challenge from a policy-based perspective by focusing on cross-domain capabilities, or an academic perspective that explores the principles behind signaling and crisis communication. This study will merge these approaches and contribute a richer analysis to the study of WMD and escalation. The study will be led by Dr. Heather Williams and Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman of King’s College London. It will provide original insights into deterrence and assurance requirements and provide an assessment on potentially destabilizing technologies and new modalities of signaling. The project will deliver a policy toolkit that will contribute to public awareness and expert scholarship about escalation management and provide decision-makers with de-escalation options in the modern strategic environment. Project work will take place March 2018-February 2019 and deliver an international workshop to understand different perspectives on the impact of social media on escalation risks, resulting in a policy report for wide public dissemination and engagement, a journal article for peer-review, and a series of briefings to relevant stakeholders in Washington, DC. Research will include interviews in Washington and Moscow to understand different perspectives on the escalation ladder, crisis management, and the role of social media in deterrence.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Oct 17, 2018
- Source ID
- FA70001810015
Entities
People
- Heather E. Williams
Organizations
- Defense Threat Reduction Agency
- King's College London
- United States Air Force Academy