Understanding the Impacts of WMD/WME Attacks on Patterns of Militant Group Alliance Formation, Infighting, Outbidding, as well as Civilian and Rank-and-File Support

Abstract

Contemporary violent conflicts are rarely contests between two sides; rather, complex militant networks create the context in which these conflicts unfold. Non-state actors in these regions (or even government groups which are largely un-regulated) operate in anarchic environments, and state and militant groups’ relationships lie at the center of these decentralized conflicts. In these settings, WMD/WME use becomes less predictable, and arguably more likely, due to increasing uncertainty, unpredictable leadership, short-sighted time horizons, and the absence of mutually assured destruction. This grant application proposes an evaluation of the impacts of WMD/WME use in asymmetric conflicts – as seen recently in Syria and Iraq. Areas of examination include the impacts of WMD/WME use on: (a) patterns of militant group tactical violence via competitive “outbidding” (groups use escalating violence to garner resources or support from other players); and (c) shifts in the ideological extremism of groups in the network.

Document Details

Document Type
DoD Grant Award
Publication Date
Oct 17, 2018
Source ID
FA70001810017

Entities

People

  • Emily Gade

Organizations

  • Defense Threat Reduction Agency
  • United States Air Force Academy
  • University of Washington

Tags

Readers

  • Political Violence and Terrorism Studies.
  • Strategic Security Studies