Developing a live predictive method for solar flaring using magnetic winding
Abstract
The forecasting of solar flares is one of the most important practical issues in solar physics. Flares have a crucial impact on space weather. They occur when the complex magnetic field structure in the lower solar atmosphere changes connectivity to a significant degree. Observations suggest one of the key drivers of this instability is the emergence of complex entangled magnetic field from below the solar surface (photosphere). Reliable means of predicting these flares have so far proved elusive. The project’s aim is to develop a live flare forecasting tool based on the promising topological metrics introduced in a prior the seedcorn project funded by AFOSR (including flare class type and a prediction of a time period until a likely event). These metrics are based on the magnetic winding, a measure of the emerging entanglement of active region magnetic field which has been pioneered by the primary and secondary investigators. Imbalances in the current-carrying component of the magnetic winding, when present and sufficiently large, have been shown by the investigators to trail flaring activity by approximately 30 hours, and individual large X class flares by approximately 7 hours, providing evidence of its the potential for individual flare prediction. The aim in this follow-on project is to expand the use of the magnetic winding measure to a comprehensive active region data set, in order to develop reliable and consistent metrics for our forecasting tool. The data set will provide as a training ground for expanding the method to deal with active regions which emerge on to the visible solar disk fully developed, and also to determine in real-time the extent of interaction of the critical complex multi-polar regions which are responsible for the most energetic flaring activity. The final outcome will be a code which provides real time predictive warnings for all visible active regions on the solar disk.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Feb 22, 2024
- Source ID
- FA86552317247
Entities
People
- Christopher Prior
Organizations
- Air Force Office of Scientific Research
- Durham University
- United States Air Force