Informed real-time human-agent teaming through patterns of eye gaze allocation (iRealHAT-PEGA)
Abstract
The forecasting of solar flares is one of the most important practical issues in solar physics. Flares have a crucial impact on space weather. They occur when the complex magnetic field structure in the lower solar atmosphere changes connectivity to a significant degree. Observations suggest one of the key drivers of this instability is the emergence of complex entangled magnetic field from below the solar surface (photosphere). Reliable means of predicting these flares have so far proved elusive. The project’s aim is to develop a live flare forecasting tool based on the promising topological metrics introduced in a prior the seedcorn project funded by AFOSR (including flare class type and a prediction of a time period until a likely event). These metrics are based on the magnetic winding, a measure of the emerging entanglement of active region magnetic field which has been pioneeredby the primary and secondary investigators. Imbalances in the current-carrying component of the magnetic winding, when present and sufficiently large, have been shown by the investigators to trail flaring activity by approximately 30 hours, and individual large X class flares by approximately 7 hours, providing evidence of its the potential for individual flare prediction.The aim in this follow-on project is to expand the use of the magnetic winding measure to acomprehensive active region data set, in order to develop reliable and consistent metrics for ourforecasting tool. The data set will provide as a training ground for expanding the method to dealwith active regions which emerge on to the visible solar disk fully developed, and also to determinein real-time the extent of interaction of the critical complex multi-polar regions which areresponsible for the most energetic flaring activity. The final outcome will be a code which providesreal time predictive warnings for all visible active regions on the solar disk.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Feb 22, 2024
- Source ID
- FA86552317252
Entities
People
- Szonya Durant
Organizations
- Air Force Office of Scientific Research
- Royal Holloway, University of London
- United States Air Force