The fundamentals of predictability of scientific success
Abstract
The goal of this proposal is to uncover and probe in a quantitative and mathematically rigorous fashion the predictability and the limits of predictability of scientific discovery. The objectives of the research include: (i) Develop tools to quantify the theoretical limit of maximum predictability of citation patterns for individual papers, individuals and institutions/geographic areas; (ii) Develop improved predictive models for paper citations; (iii) Explore the predictability of stochastic models designed to predict the evolution of performance within a scientic career; (iv) Develop tools to quantify the level of aggregated information exchange among institution/geographic area, and (v) Develop predictive statistical approaches to quantify the time behavior of this indicator.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Mar 23, 2016
- Source ID
- FA95501510077
Entities
People
- Albert-László Barabási
Organizations
- Air Force Office of Scientific Research
- Northeastern University
- Office of the Secretary of Defense