Understanding and predicting the space weather impact of extreme solar storms
Abstract
The Carrington storm of 1859 and the solar wind conditions experienced by STEREO-A when aCME struck the spacecraft on July 23rd, 2012, provide a reasonable scenario for once in a 100-year extreme solar storm impacting Earth. The goal of this proposal is to determine how thegeospace system would respond to an event of this size, and how near-Earth operational systemswould react. The proposed study will use sophisticated models of the magnetosphere-ionospherethermosphereto investigate, understand, and estimate a realistic response of the physical systemto an extreme solar eruption, and quantify the impacts on operational systems.With the obvious lack of observations, the physical models will enable estimates of themagnitude of some key processes, 1) Magnetospheric convection and possible saturation; 2) Theflow of energy from the solar wind through the magnetosphere to the upper atmosphere drivingthermosphere expansion; 3) Equatorward expansion of the polar cap boundary, the auroral oval,penetration electric fields, and the intensity of ionospheric currents; 4) Erosion of theplasmasphere; 5) Positive and negative phases in the ionospheric plasma density and totalelectron content.By understanding and estimating the likely response of the physical system to an extreme solarstorm we will be able to quantify the impact on operational system, to enable operators, planners,and decision makers to make appropriate choices to implement mitigation strategies, withobvious societal benefits. Increases in TEC delay GNSS signals reducing satellite navigationpositioning accuracy; steep ionospheric gradients and irregularities cause scintillations in radiowaves disrupting communication. Upper atmosphere heating and thermal expansion increasesneutral density and the drag on satellites and debris in low-Earth orbit, influencing orbitprediction and collision avoidance.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Aug 28, 2018
- Source ID
- FA95501810483
Entities
People
- Timothy Fuller-rowell
Organizations
- Air Force Office of Scientific Research
- Regents of the University of Colorado
- United States Air Force