Complex Linkages, Ambivalent Ties- Global Security and Economic Interdependence in the 21st Century
Abstract
The international community faces a growing set of rapidly evolving, dauntingly complex political challenges related to economic interdependence and security. A revisionist Russia has unilaterally redrawn the borders of Europe, and increasingly seeks to confront the United States and its allies in nontraditional domains. Meanwhile, the economic and military rise of China threatens to reshape the global order for the first time in decades. These dynamics and others suggest a return to traditional Great Power competition. However, they are also occurring in a historically novel context. Unprecedented levels of economic interdependence and the impractical nature of major war among nuclear powers stand as twin pillars discouraging some types of aggression, while enabling others. Economic interdependence makes military conflict between great powers more costly at the same time that it facilitates novel forms of economic coercion, ranging from the raising of tariffs and embargoing of strategic resources, to blacklisting technology firms with close relationships to governments (Huawei) and targeting state and non-state actors through their dependence on financial networks (Al Qaeda, Iran). Interdependence generated by the revolutions in information technology have also simultaneously produced tremendous economic efficiencies and rising vulnerabilities to new forms of aggression (backdoors in telecommunications infrastructure, ransomware attacks on municipal governments, election interference, corporate espionage). Keeping these complex interdependencies and their potential for conflict in mind, we seek to answer the following questions- 1. How do competition and conflict function in the presence of dense economic ties? 2. How can the U.S. best use economic power to achieve its national interests while avoiding armed conflict? 3. Under what conditions is economic coercion most effective? The complexity of economic interdependence ensures contrasting consequences in different contexts. While interdependence reduces the economic incentives of states to conquer their neighbors’ territory outright, it may increase incentives for nations to demand changes to a neighbor’s policies or politics, including antitrust and non-competitive behavior. Trade and foreign investment allow states to gain a great deal of wealth from their neighbors without conquering them. Conversely, it is precisely because the United States is so interdependent with other nations that US leaders have such a strong interest in Chinese industrial policy, monetary policy, antitrust regulations, intellectual property rights, and Chinese relationships with other nations.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Mar 07, 2023
- Source ID
- FA95502110143
Entities
People
- Erik Gartzke
Organizations
- Air Force Office of Scientific Research
- United States Air Force
- University of California, San Diego