Small Steps and Giant Leaps- Remoteness, Bias, and Decision-making in Space
Abstract
What cognitive biases affect military operations and decision-making in the space domain. Recent research on emerging technologies has shown that automated and autonomous systems can warp human decision-making in predictable ways, including automation bias, which can have serious consequences for defense. As use of space grows and space becomes a focal point for competition, it is critical to understand how questions of trust, confidence, and biases will influence the adoption and use of different space strategies. Extreme distance, remote control, degrees of automation, and even cultural understandings shaped by science-fiction literature and films could all distort leaders’ and operators’ perceptions and decision-making capabilities in space. These factors increase uncertainty about the space domain, which generates friction. We focus in particular on three ways that space is remote that could shape strategy and behavior-physical distance, difficulty of access, and psychological unfamiliarity. This proposal unpacks these questions through a multimethod approach that includes survey experiments, wargames, quantitative text analysis, historical analysis of the rise of new domains of warfare, and case studies of cross-national developments of space capabilities and perceptions of space as a domain. The results will have critical relevance for questions of space strategy and operational planning. Additionally, the results could shed light on broader questions surrounding norms of behavior in space, how to handle questions of the commons surrounding space debris, and space exploration.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Mar 07, 2023
- Source ID
- FA95502110376
Entities
People
- Michael Horowitz
Organizations
- Air Force Office of Scientific Research
- United States Air Force
- University of Pennsylvania