NuKI: A Framework for Modeling Society Following a Nuclear WMD Event
Abstract
This research is to advance our understanding of the effects of a nuclear weapon of mass destruction event on population dynamics. While the physical effects of such an event have been studied, the social effects are not well understood. Such effects may include complex cascading behaviors between and among the myriad of social systems and networks that have been too complex to easily describe using traditional methods. This basic research will investigate and develop greater knowledge of the fundamental aspects of the response of individuals of a population and their social networks of networks to a nuclear WMD event through the use of computational social science, particularly agent-based modeling. The objective is to develop and test an understanding of a population’s response through implementing theories in a computer model. The model will show how an affected population might react to a WMD event in the first 30 days, including both in the short term (e.g. evacuation) and longer term (e.g. finding water, food), but not the recovery. Humans have many behaviors in common which make their modeling possible and one of the longest-surviving theories of behavior is a hierarchy of needs. People’s top priorities are their physiological requirements, i.e., immediate survival needs. If their immediate requirements are met, they consider less immediate safety and security needs. Only when these are somewhat met can they consider general social needs. These first three levels of needs will be the primary and shared drivers of human and social system’s behavior in responding in the near term to a nuclear WMD event. Although these are shared drivers, people’s and their social system’s responses can be diverse and will be modeled as such, based on theories and data on individual differences. Humans are diverse and this vital diversity will be captured in the model of human behavior. Different individuals have different tolerances for risk, levels of altruism, and individual personality traits. Individuals’ social contexts will also drive their decision-making. Broad demographic and cultural differences may also drive behavior. The research and model that will be developed will capture such individual characteristics and how they drive behavior. People usually employ simple rules in their daily activities and would likely apply similar rules even in emergencies. Such simple rules can explain complex behaviors and have been applied to large-scale social simulations. In addition to such theories, human behavior will be modeled by analyzing detailed data on individual behaviors. The model developed by this work will incorporate sound social psychology theory, social behavioral data, and where possible empirical data to capture these responses. The scope of this project is to develop a social simulation at the one-to-one population level in a geographically accurate environment to model heterogeneous individuals’ and groups’ response to a nuclear WMD event. The project involves testing the developed ideas through two case studies: one a mega-city and one a regional area. This agent-based modeling methodology is expected to develop a more complete understanding of consequences of a nuclear WMD event on a society. The project will involve two faculty members and two graduate research assistants throughout the three years of this research and results of this basic research will be presented at conferences and published as peer-reviewed journal articles.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Jun 29, 2016
- Source ID
- HDTRA11610043
Entities
People
- William G. Kennedy
Organizations
- Defense Threat Reduction Agency
- George Mason University