Modeling & Simulation

Abstract

The mission of MDA`s M&S program is to develop models and simulations of the BMDS in order to compare predictions to empirical data collected through comprehensive flight and ground testing to validate their accuracy, rather than physically testing all possible combinations of BMDS configurations, engagement conditions, and target phenomena. As a result, MDA strives to develop M&S products and capabilities that are repeatable, consistent and provide confidence in the predicted performance of the BMDS. The M&S objective is to evolve the M&S to match, as appropriate, the real world performance of the BMDS and meet Warfighters needs. M&S`s distinct capabilities are ingrained throughout the BMDS Elements and provide the Warfighter and Operational Test Agencies (OTA) with an evaluation capability for individual components and system-of-systems. MDA`s M&S accredits system-level models and simulations by anchoring them to real-world events to support accurate and comprehensive assessments of the BMDS. Future M&S developments will focus on the model and simulation framework, BMDS Element models, threat assessments and phenomenology and lethality modeling. The success of the missile defense program is enabled by quality M&S products and capabilities that prove with certainty that the BMDS technologies work. Modeling & Simulation: MDA`s M&S systems provide analysis, decision-making and planning capabilities for Real-World Operations in support of the White House, Joint Staff, Services, NATO, COCOMs (EUCOM, PACOM, CENTCOM, STRATCOM [Military Utility Assessment]), OTA, Director of Operational Test &Evaluation, and Allies. Targeted M&S activities support all phases of BMDS development including BMDS design, Element modifications, flight test missions, ground tests, wargames, exercises, and performance assessment (PA). Models and simulations are tailored to the specific need of a component in its current phase of development, ranging from low-to-medium fidelity analyses supporting concept definitions studies, to high-fidelity models used to support engineering development. To execute the M&S mission requires reliance and operation of two simulation frameworks which, when combined to meet specific M&S use case and user requirements with the appropriate fidelity, Element and component models form a single Objective Simulation Architecture version to enable BMDS performance in a simulated environment. The BMD Digital Simulations Architecture (DSA) is the primary M&S System framework used to integrate Element baselines prior to flight or ground testing, facilitate technical trade-offs, concept analysis and trade studies, as well as providing support to Wargames and exercises within the BMDS Program. The DSA-performance architecture and Element and component high fidelity models support PA events, which provide critical system level performance data relative to all elements, system engineers, M&S developers, the OTA and Warfighters. The DSA-virtual architecture supports Element baseline integration, training, portions of ground testing and exercises. The BMD Single Stimulation Framework (SSF) utilizes Hardware-In-The Loop (HWIL) assets to support primarily BMDS ground testing, pre and post flight test mission construction and reconstruction, portions of the training capability, Wargames, exercises and BMDS contingency studies, as well as various other use cases to enable BMDS performance in a simulated environment. Each BMDS Element supports the M&S Program by providing HWIL representations ready for integration into the BMDS system-level framework to support full-envelope BMDS ground test, flight test, and training events based upon Agency and Warfighter needs. The BMDS M&S uses the completed Critical Engagement Conditions (CEC`s) and Empirical Measurement Events (EME`s) data to reconstruct the flight test to perform M&S validation. These M&S Digital and HWIL tools are accredited for each application and for specific CEC`s and EME`s objectives. They are tools put through a rigorous verification and validation (V&V) process, reviewing coding and specifications, and comparing analyses against actual flight test results (anchoring). V&V planning support is required to develop the comprehensive V&V plan, test objectives development analysis execution planning, analysis for V&V reports and program office M&S certification. The BMDS M&S System is evolving into a fully integrated End-to-End HWIL/Digital system that provide a common source for truth and event control with an Initial Operational Capability (IOC) available in FY 2012. The final integrated system will merge the Single Stimulation Framework (SSF) and Digital Simulation Architectures (DSA) into one seamless M&S product that will meet both real-time and non-real time simulation activities. This combined framework called the Objective Simulation Framework (OSF) will host all simulated activities, events, scenarios, and Element and Threat models. The end-to-end M&S System will be used to conduct BMDS ground tests and PAs, component training, Wargames, flight tests, threat analysis, international events, and COCOM exercises. The Digital and HWIL End-to-End simulation of the BMDS requires an Integrated V&V Plan and Report (at both element and system level), and a system level Accreditation Plan and Report. System pre- and post-flight reconstruction: The M&S Program will support system pre-flight predictions for each system level flight test using the test framework set up with the BMDS configuration for a particular flight test. This provides the confidence in flight test execution by predicting Element performance and exercising Element interfaces. This work is also used to prove out the construct of the flight test to ensure if the required data and data management plan will support system post flight reconstruction (SPFR) objectives. SPFR will use a HWIL and/or a digital M&S environment to replicate the day of flight for the BMDS configuration, modified to represent the actual environment conditions and target dynamics observed in flight. The results of this testing are used to increase confidence in the models and simulations by anchoring the results with emphasis on the CEC`s and EME`s back to the real world event. SPFR is used for validation (anchoring) of models and simulations. Interdependencies: MDA`s M&S program is key to ensuring missile defense is affordable and effective. Through the use of verified and validated models and accredited simulation tools, the MDA`s M&S program provides the cost effective means to prove and explore the performance space of the BMDS beyond what can be physically tested under current range conditions. The SSF and DSA, as stand alone frameworks and as a combined Objective Simulation Framework (OSF) with appropriate element and component models, enhances the defensive capabilities to defend deployed forces, allies and friends against theater missile threats by enabling element integration, Warfighter training and exercises. M&S enables the concept exploration and functional analysis used to defend against rogue threats beyond 2030 by providing the cost effective capability to support BMDS design early in the acquisition life cycle. M&S HWIL and digital frameworks provide the efficient capability to prove the missile defense capability through rigorous testing process to include pre-test, ground test, flight test and post-test activities. Through conceptual simulation activities, M&S provides the capability to design and develop those technologies to hedge against future missile threats. Throughout the budget justification material, we have attempted to highlight interdependencies in order to explain fully the relationship between different parts of the proposed program and how the M&S program enables the required capabilities to meet the threat today and develop the capabilities to defeat those future threats. M&S interdependencies are key in BMDS performance evaluation strategy with models and simulations of the BMDS and require close coordination with the OTA, Elements, COCOMs, Army, Air Force, and numerous MDA organizations. Test: The BMDS performance evaluation strategy is to develop models and simulations of the BMDS and compare their predictions to empirical data collected through comprehensive flight and ground testing to validate their accuracy, rather than physically testing all possible combinations of BMDS configurations, engagement conditions, and target phenomena. The BMDS test review determines how to validate our models and simulations so that our war fighting commanders have confidence in the predicted performance of the BMDS, especially when those commanders consider employing the BMDS in ways other than originally planned or against threats unknown at this time. The FY 2011 M&S Program focuses on further correction of the deficiencies stated in the 2008 DOT&E BMDS Assessment Report to include: - Executing BMDS scenarios that flight test cannot assess because of geographic and safety constraints with models and simulations - Predicting system performance with the use of verified and validated models and simulations - Executing SPFR to provide empirical data to confirm system performance and to further refine and validate models and simulations - Continuing to jointly develop accreditation criteria between MDA & OTA - Continuing to address the V&V of threat models, radar models, kill vehicle models and lethality models MDA Element testing is based on an integrated, comprehensive, and phased test program as outlined in MDA`s Integrated Master Test Plan (IMTP). Element systems, subsystems, and components are tested early in development and are necessary prior to conducting BMD System-level testing. M&S Program Element level testing is funded as part of a developmental program and reflected in this Program Element (PE) submission. This PE also provides M&S Program participation in the consolidated MDA-wide System Test Program and the resources for the planning, design, execution and management of M&S in BMDS testing in accordance with the BMDS Test Policy, MDA Directive 3202.03 (Jan 2009). This applies to all flight, integrated ground, and distributed ground tests and post-test analysis and reconstructions listed in the IMTP. Common Threat Engineering: Common threat engineering produces common and consistent adversary trajectory and signature data to enable BMDS and sub-system concept and requirements, design, verification and assessment. Common Threat data is key to the common truth used as part of the DSA and SSF to prove the BMDS. Common threat is contained in the Adversary Capability Document (ACD) and Adversary Data Packages (ADP) and drives BMDS ground tests, flight tests, digital simulations, and pre-mission analysis initiatives. MDA M&S is used to support European and Russian cooperative activities, North Korean and Iranian pre- and post-flight launch analysis, and the enhanced Israeli Interceptor program.

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Document Type: Project
Publication Date: Oct 01, 2011
Source ID: MD31_0603890C_4_0400_PB_2011

Modeling & Simulation

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