Modeling & Simulation

Abstract

The mission of MDA`s Modeling & Simulation (M&S) program is to develop models and simulations of the BMDS in order to compare predictions to empirical data collected through comprehensive flight and ground testing to validate their accuracy, rather than physically testing all possible combinations of BMDS configurations, engagement conditions, and target phenomena. Testing the BMDS to empirically determine its performance capabilities and limitations is very challenging and cost prohibitive; therefore, we focus on conducting tests to collect Critical Engagement Conditions (CECs) and Empirical Measurement Events (EMEs) so we can Validate, Verify and Accredit (VV&A) models to determine ultimate BMDS performance and support COCOM Commander`s planning. CECs are test points identified to efficiently capture data to resolve known modeling and simulation uncertainties that limit performance prediction accuracy. EMEs are test point identified to efficiently collect data that is not modeled or modeled at high fidelity. EMEs are also test points beyond CEC collections required to achieve high modeling confidence for integrated capabilities over all engagement conditions. As a result, MDA strives to develop M&S products and capabilities that are repeatable, consistent and provide confidence in the predicted performance of the BMDS. The Phased Adaptive Approach (PAA) was developed in response to the rapid proliferation of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles in Iran, and the threat they pose to United States Allies and partners, as well as to United States deployed personnel in the Middle East and in Europe. By leveraging recent advances in sensor and interceptor technologies, the United States will aggressively counter this growing regional threat with a more powerful and agile system. The United States is pursuing a four-phased approach which will provide a more effective missile defense capability for defense of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) territories, and enhance United States homeland defense. It will be complementary of and interoperable with those missile defense capabilities being developed by NATO, and be applicable in other theaters around the world, in addition to being more adaptable and flexible in order to counter threat advances and provide increased defended areas over time. The initial phase includes the deployment of current and proven missile defense, including the sea-based Aegis Weapons System, SM-3 Block IIB, and sensors such as the forward-based Army-Navy/Transportable Radar Surveillance System (AN/TPY-2). Subsequent phases will be implemented based upon technical maturity, appropriate testing, and threat-driven requirements. The M&S objective is to evolve the M&S to match, as appropriate, the real world performance of the BMDS and meet Warfighters needs. M&S`s distinct capabilities are ingrained throughout the BMDS Elements and provide the Warfighter and Operational Test Agency (OTA) with an evaluation capability for individual components and systems-of-systems. MDA`s M&S accredits system-level models and simulations by anchoring them to real-world events to support accurate and comprehensive assessments of the BMDS. Future M&S developments will focus on the model and simulation frameworks, BMDS Element models, threat assessments and phenomenology and lethality modeling, as well as communications and environmental modeling. The success of the missile defense program is enabled by quality M&S products and capabilities that prove with certainty that the BMDS technologies work. Modeling & Simulation: MDA`s M&S systems provide analysis, decision-making and planning capabilities for Real-World Operations in support of the White House, Joint Staff, Services, NATO, COCOMs (EUCOM, PACOM, CENTCOM, STRATCOM [Military Utility Assessment]), OTAs, Director of Operational Test & Evaluation, and Allies. Targeted M&S activities support all aspects of BMDS development including BMDS design, Element modifications, flight test missions, ground tests, wargames, exercises, Performance Assessments (PAs), and Technical Assessments (TAs). Models and simulations are tailored to the specific need of a component in its current stage of development, ranging from low-to-medium fidelity analyses supporting concept definitions studies, to high-fidelity models used to support engineering development. To execute the M&S mission requires reliance on and operation of two simulation frameworks which, when combined to meet specific M&S use case and user requirements with the appropriate fidelity, form a single Objective Simulation Architecture (OSF) version to enable BMDS performance in a simulated environment. CECs are the test conditions that provide the greatest insight into the BMDS models` predictive capability, when compared to test results. EMEs are those ground or flight testing executed under operationally realistic conditions to collect data on those performance measures that can`t be simulated such as data on survivability, reliability, performance in extreme natural environments, and supportability, needed for the Operational Test Agency Critical Operational Issues. The BMDS M&S uses the completed CECs and EMEs data to reconstruct flight tests to perform M&S validation. These M&S Digital and HWIL tools are accredited for each application and for specific CEC and EME objectives. The tools undergo a rigorous Verification & Validation (V&V) process which includes reviewing coding and specifications, and comparing analyses against actual flight test results (anchoring). Verification & Validation planning support is required to develop the comprehensive Verification & Validation plan, test objectives development analysis execution planning, analysis for V&V reports and program office M&S certification. The BMDS M&S System is evolving into a fully integrated End-to-End HWIL/Digital system that provides a common source for truth and event control with an Initial Operational Capability. The final integrated system will merge the Single Stimulation Framework (SSF) and Digital Simulation Architecture (DSA) into one seamless M&S product that will meet both real-time and non-real time simulation activities. This combined framework, called the Objective Simulation Framework (OSF), will host all simulated activities, events, scenarios, and Element and Threat models. MDA will use the end-to-end M&S System to conduct BMDS ground tests, PAs, TAs, component training, Wargames, flight tests, threat analysis, international events, and COCOM exercises. The Digital and HWIL End-to-End simulation of the BMDS requires an Integrated Verification & Validation Plan and Report (at both element and system level), and a system level Accreditation Plan and Report. System pre- and post-flight reconstruction: The M&S Program will support system pre-flight predictions for each system level flight test using the test framework set up with the BMDS configuration for a particular flight test. This provides the confidence in flight test execution by predicting Element performance and exercising Element interfaces. This work also examines the construct of the flight test to ensure the required data and data management plan will support System Post Flight Reconstruction (SPFR) and System Post-Ground Test Reconstruction (SPGR) objectives. SPFR will use a HWIL and/or a digital M&S environment to replicate the day of flight for the BMDS configuration, modified to represent the actual environment conditions and target dynamics. The results of this testing increase confidence in the models and simulations by anchoring the M&S output to the real world event with emphasis on the CECs and EMEs. SPFR is used for validation (anchoring) of models and simulations. SPGR will use a HWIL and/or digital M&S environment for validation (anchoring) of Ground Test models and simulations. Interdependencies: MDA`s M&S program is key to ensuring missile defense is affordable and effective. Through the use of verified and validated models and accredited simulation tools, the MDA`s M&S program provides the cost effective means to prove and explore the performance space of the BMDS beyond what can be physically tested under current range conditions. The Single Stimulation Framework (SSF) and Digital Simulation Architecture (DSA), as stand-alone frameworks and as a combined OSF with appropriate element and component models, enhance the defensive capabilities to defend deployed forces, allies and friends against theater missile threats by enabling element integration, Warfighter training and exercises. M&S enables the concept exploration and functional analysis used to defend against threats beyond 2030 by providing the cost effective capability to support BMDS design early in the acquisition life cycle. M&S HWIL and digital frameworks provide the efficient capability to prove the missile defense capability through rigorous testing process to include pre-test, ground test, flight test and post-test activities. Through conceptual simulation activities, M&S provides the capability to design and develop technologies to hedge against future missile threats. Throughout the budget justification material, interdependencies are highlighted in order to explain fully the relationship between different parts of the proposed program and how the M&S program enables the required capabilities to meet the threat today and develop the capabilities to defeat those future threats. M&S interdependencies are key in BMDS performance evaluation strategy with models and simulations of the BMDS and require close coordination with the OTAs, Elements, COCOMs, Army, Air Force, and numerous MDA organizations. Test: The BMDS performance evaluation strategy is to develop models and simulations of the BMDS and compare their predictions to empirical data collected through comprehensive flight and ground testing to validate their accuracy, rather than physically testing all possible combinations of BMDS configurations, engagement conditions, and target phenomena. The BMDS test review determines how to validate our models and simulations so that our war fighting commanders have confidence in the predicted performance of the BMDS, especially when those commanders consider employing the BMDS in ways other than originally planned or against threats unknown at this time. The FY 2011 M&S Program focuses on further correction of the deficiencies stated in the 2008 Director of Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) BMDS Assessment Report to include: - Executing BMDS scenarios that flight testing cannot assess because of geographic and safety constraints with models and simulations - Predicting system performance with the use of verified and validated models and simulations - Executing SPFRs to provide empirical data to confirm system performance and to further refine and validate models and simulations - Continuing to jointly develop accreditation criteria between MDA and OTA - Continuing to address the V&V of threat models, radar models, kill vehicle models and lethality models MDA Element testing is based on an integrated, comprehensive, and phased test program as outlined in MDA`s IMTP. Element systems, subsystems, and components are tested early in development and are necessary prior to conducting BMD System-level testing. M&S level testing is funded as part of a developmental program and funds participation in the consolidated MDA-wide System Test Program. Resources for the planning, design, execution and management of M&S in BMDS testing are provided for all flight, integrated ground, and distributed ground tests and post-test analysis and reconstruction accordance with the BMDS Test Policy, as listed in the IMTP. Common Threat Engineering: Common threat engineering produces common and consistent adversary trajectory and signature data to enable BMDS and sub-system concept and requirements, design, verification and assessment. Common Threat data is key to the common truth used as part of the DSA and SSF to prove the BMDS. Common threat is derived from the Adversary Capability Document (ACD) and Adversary Data Packages (ADP) and drives BMDS ground tests, flight tests, digital simulations, and pre-mission analysis initiatives. The Threat Modeling Center (TMC) uses derivative ADP-based threat specifications to develop various missile models which are used to produce threat trajectory products in support of MDA events. The Threat Modeling Center model development requires frequent and multiple iterations with derivative ADP specification developers for various reasons, such as refining specifications, deriving next-order calculations, and engineering additional specifications. After missile models are developed, the model is flown using Threat Modeling Center trajectory generation tools to ensure output trajectories match the derivative ADP reference trajectories. All Threat Modeling Center models receive rigorous quality control reviews in addition to Verification & Validation reviews. After the Threat Modeling Center model is completed, the ADP is updated to include any additional threat specifications or changes. MDA M&S also supports European and Russian cooperative activities, North Korean and Iranian pre- and post-flight launch analysis, and the enhanced Israeli Interceptor program, and provides analytical support to the Agency and other government efforts in response to real world events.

Document Details

• Document Type: Project
• Publication Date: Oct 01, 2012
• Source ID: MD31_0603890C_4_0400_PB_2012

Tags

Readers

• Computational Modeling and Simulation
• Missile Defense Systems.

Technology Areas

• Space