Deterrence with Proxies
Abstract
Do house demolitions radicalize the Palestinian population? Abstract: This research project will investigate the effect of selective and indiscriminate policies of counterterrorism on the political preferences of an aggrieved constituency that is purportedly represented by terror groups. In particular, the project plans to focus on the policy of house demolitions and examine its effect on the radicalization of the Palestinian population during the time of the second Palestinian uprising (Second Intifada). The unintended effects of violence on radicalization is arguably one of the most contentious questions regarding modern conflicts in general and the Palestinian- Israeli conflict in particular. This project constitutes a critical building block of the DwP theoretical framework. In this case study Israel acts as the principal, the Palestinian Authority (PA) (under Arafat) is the proxy, and various militantfactions (including Hamas) are the problem the PA is charged with suppressing. This case study fits the DwPframework since reactions to the principal’s actions affect the constraints faced by the proxy. Home demolitions are direct suppression of the problem by Israeli forces, which reduce the militants ability to attack. This is the direct benefit of this policy for the principal. That said,policies of counterterrorism might have indirect costs for the principal because they may lead to the political radicalization of the Palestinian population. This reaction undermines the PA (the proxy) and reduces the level of effort the proxy invests to combat terrorism during a cooperation phase. This is the indirect cost of this policy to the principal. The research would gather public polling data from Palestinian sources during the Second Intifada period (2000-05) to measure the effects of Israeli demolitions on Palestinian public opinion, in order to better understand the constraints faced by the proxy, in the larger model. The method would be econometric analysis (we have the demolition data assembled already). The broader impacts could be significant as demolitions are a category of violence suffered by civilians in the course of counterterrorism. That category includes drone and missile strikes, which are the subject of a current policy debate. The DwP framework provides a new way of approaching that topic.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Aug 12, 2016
- Source ID
- N000141512149
Entities
People
- Esteban Klor
Organizations
- Hebrew University of Jerusalem
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy