The Over-The-Horizon Project
Abstract
Research Problem: The overarching objective of the proposed research program is to comprehensively understand how “over-the-horizon” counterterrorism (OTH-CT) that substitute air power and local allies for foreign occupying forces affect the targeting strategies and patterns of violence of Suicide Attack Organizations (SAOs), militant groups that use both suicide and non-suicide attacks. The proposed project builds on previous work conducted for ONR on the relationship between counterinsurgency (COIN) strategies and SAO targeting. While OTH-CT is growing centrality, the effectiveness of OTH-CT and its consequences for militant group strategy – including attacks against the United States – there is currently no systematic and integrated theoretical and empirical framework for understanding how OTHCT strategies affect the militant groups (1) targeting behavior against the rival incumbent government and local population as well as the state providing OTH support; (2) organizational cohesion, encouraging more or less centralized control; and (3) type and degree of support for the group and its goals among the local population. Proposed Method: The proposed two-year study combines rigorous qualitative and quantitative methods to advance our knowledge of the effect of OTH-CT on SAOs. Using within- and across-case research designs, CPOST will use in-depth case studies of key cases to develop theory and testable hypotheses, leveraging variation in OTH-CT strategies and variation in SAO targeting, cohesion, and popular support over time to produce generalizable and case-specific knowledge in this mission-critical domain. A key feature of the mixed method approach is that it facilitates identification of causal and confounding factors that can be tested and controlled for in statistical tests. The technical approach comprises 11 Tasks spread over two phases of the two-year period of performance. In Phase 1 we develop Campaign Targeting Profiles of five SAOs and develop the preliminary integrated theory of OTH-CT and SAO response. Tasks are establishing the research team (1); finalizing the research plan (2); collecting and coding attack data (3); producing the five CTPs (4); developing the theory and hypotheses (5), and producing a Phase 1 final report (6). In Phase 2 CPOST will test the theory and hypotheses developed in Phase 1 to produce five analytic reports and a unified and integrated theory of the effect of OTH-CT on targeted SAOs that accounts for variation and controls for confounds. Tasks are formalizing research design and data requirements (7); collecting data on key variables, including likely confounds (8); executing the testing plan and producing the five analytic report (9); integrating findings to finalize the integrated theory of OTH-CT and SAOs (10); and producing a Project Final Report including implications for naval and defense strategy (11). Outcomes and Impact: The proposed project will advance knowledge in the area of OTH-CT and counterterrorism more generally, and will generate several products that will help defense practitioners and national security planners in developing and assessing the effectiveness of the next generation in counterterrorism strategies. The five proposed case studies (CTPs) cover active SAO campaigns that pose a current threat to the US and allies in key regions, and will provide in-depth insight into how these SAOs operate. The analytic reports develop case-specific and generalizable theory that identify the strengths and weaknesses of specific OTH-CT strategies and the conditions under which they are most likely to succeed in the future against current and future SAOs. Finally, the specific analyses and the integrated theory of OTH-CT will be of interest to scholars of civil wars, terrorism, and insurgency. A key goal throughout the project is dissemination of findings in scientific, peer-reviewed journals. Proposed Budget: $588,418 over Two Years
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Aug 12, 2016
- Source ID
- N000141512642
Entities
People
- Robert Pape
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of Chicago