Understanding Impacts of Outflow on Tropical Cyclone Formation and Rapid Intensity and Structure Changes with Data Assimilation and High-resolution Numerical Simulations
Abstract
Funds are provided to conduct research to improve our understanding and prediction of the TC outflow layer, as well as its evolution and relation to TC formation and intensity and structure changes. The ONR TCS-08, TCI-14, and TCI-15 programs successfully obtained unique datasets, making it possible to study the problem using numerical simulations with data assimilation. Research activities will focus on the following three areas: 1) Continue investigating the science questions concerning TC outflow as originally proposed with TCI-14 and TCI-15 hurricane cases and NAVGEM global analyses and forecasts. 2) Address key science questions associated with the forecast challenges of Hurricanes Joaquin and Patricia during TCI-15. Specific attention will be given to investigating the controlling factors that influence the numerical prediction of the track of Hurricane Joaquin and the rapid intensification of Hurricane Patricia. 3) Evaluate the NAVGEM analysis and forecast of TCs and explore the useful precursors for predicting TC intensity changes. These goals will be achieved by a collaborative effort with data analysis, integrated data assimilation, and high resolution numerical simulations using NRL~s Coupled Ocean / Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC model).
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Aug 12, 2016
- Source ID
- N000141612491
Entities
People
- Zhaoxia Pu
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of Utah