HATS: Hypergraph Analytics of Terrorism Splits
Abstract
This effort is designed to leverage the power of social science and computer science collaboration to identify the conditions that predict where splinters will arise within Violent Non-State Actors (VNSAs), and where factions of different VNSAs are likely to cooperate with or fight each other. One important characteristic of violent non-state actors (VNSAs) is their lack of internal unity. Due to challenges to their internal cohesion, VNSAs are frequently prone to fragmentation. Fissures surrounding ideology, goals, strategy, and clashing personalities often emerge soon after a group has been established. The death or capture of a charismatic and unifying leader can accentuate these fissures, and produce lasting or irreversible schisms. Subgroups may splinter into new organizations that are sometimes at odds with, but sometimes cooperate with, their parent organizations. The most recent major organizational split in the world of VNSAs has been the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (referred to in this document by its most commonly known acronym, ISIS) being expelled from, and subsequently becoming a major competitor to, its parent organization, al-Qaeda. But there also have been many other major splinters in recent years, including Las Zetas leaving the Gulf Cartel. This proposal is designed to leverage the power of social science and computer science collaboration to identify the conditions that predict where splinters will arise within VNSAs, and where factions of different VNSAs are likely to cooperate with or fight each other. The resulting theory, algorithms, and prototypes can produce significant strategic advantage for the United States by allowing it to better shape the environment with respect to hostile VNSAs. Our research will use the competition between ISIS and al-Qaeda as a detailed case study, and will be capable of explaining past splits as well as predicting future schisms in both organizations. However, the research and methods will also be more widely applicable to other VNSAs that face the possibility of fragmentation.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Nov 23, 2016
- Source ID
- N000141612918
Entities
People
- V.s. Subrahmanian
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of Maryland