Leveraging the MJO for Multi-Week Predictions: Improving Understanding of MJO - Maritime Continent Interactions
Abstract
Perform a foundational multi-model evaluation study that will provide the broader community examining this problem an assessment of the most pervasive and problematic systematic biases in contemporary weather and climate models with respect to the local convection and air-sea interactions over MC. This will leverage the 28 weather and climate model simulation contributions to the recently conducted multimodel physical processes experiment championed by the MJO TF and the GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) and organized in part by the proposal PIs. An early example of the type of results from this objective are shown in Figure 1. 2) Perform a detailed characterization and analysis of the multi-scale interactions between the MJO, CCKW and the local diurnal cycle of precipitation over MC using observation-based data sets and numerical simulations. We propose to investigate CCKW propagation over the MC, including the diurnal cycle of precipitation along CCKW trajectories and the influence from local ocean-atmosphere coupling processes. The key outcome of this objective is to address the importance of the multi-scale and air-sea interactions for the propagation of CCKW in various phases of the MJO and ability of weather/climate models to account for these processes. 3) Utilize the new WCRP-WWRP Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Project reforecast/forecast database to quantify the forecast skill of propagating atmospheric wave phenomena across the MC, putting it in a context with an associated estimate of predictability, and taking into account the findings from the abovetwo study tasks. This database includes subseasonal forecasts from 11 operational models, and associated reforecast climatologies. This work will build on our recent work on MJO, boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), and eastern Pacific ISV prediction skill and predictability assessments.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Nov 23, 2016
- Source ID
- N000141613139
Entities
People
- Duane Waliser
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of California, Los Angeles