Air-Sea Coupling in Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations
Abstract
Reliable predictions of the initiation, propagation, strength, and variability of MonsoonIntraseasonal Oscillations (MISO) constitu""te building blocks of monsoon forecasting, which arecrucial for ensuring the socioeconomic wellbeing and safety of nearly one billi""on inhabitants ofthe Indian subcontinent. MISO are sub-seasonal weather phenomena that originate in the tropics,propagate northwar"d over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and then move westward over the Indianlandmass. Active and break phases of monsoons are directly cor"related with MISO, butsignificant biases and errors in current forecasts have been a bane for environmental planningbeyond several" weeks in advance. Mounting evidence suggests that accurate accounting of airseacoupling is imperative for skillful forecasting of" MISO and their surrogates such as rainfall,yet our lack of understanding of thermodynamic and physical processes, both on the ocea""n andatmospheric sides, has stymied the progress of forecast improvements. MISO are a meld ofmultiscale physical processes working"" symbiotically to produce organized (~ 1000 km scale),migrating rain bands separated by periods of clear sky.This proposal seeks p"articipation of a multidisciplinary research team in the MISO-BOB DRI ofONR to address critical science questions underlying MISO d"ynamics. Of particular interest arethe physical mechanisms responsible for heat, momentum and mass transfer across the air-seainte""rface, feedbacks between atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers, lead-lag relationshipsbetween the sea-surface temperature, net he""at flux and precipitation, as well as sustaining anddissolving MISO convection. Collectively, a suite of high-end atmospheric and o""ceanicinstrumentation will be deployed in the Indian Ocean, on the land over multiple countries and onresearch vessels, to collect" data of high granularity. Ultra-high resolution coupled numericalsimulations will be used to guide field experimental designs and data interpretation. Novelautonomous measurement platforms and large eddy simulation (LES) technologies will bedeveloped to study" relevant air-sea processes. Satellite and reanalysis products will be used toaugment in situ data, allowing integration of observa""tions across sub-meso to seasonal scales. Inunison, the proposed research will contribute immensely to improve forecasts of MISO, a""ndMonsoons in general, via discovery of physical mechanisms, understanding their linkages,development of parameterizations, and pr"oviding a robust dataset for modelers. Collaborationwith government agencies from the US and partnering countries will help transition research toforecasting products. The project also includes capacity building of partnering countries.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- May 05, 2017
- Source ID
- N000141712334
Entities
People
- Harindra Fernando
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of Notre Dame