Mesoscale predictability and multi-scale error propagation
Abstract
Funds are provided to investigate the problem of mesoscale predictability in numerical weather forecasts. The accurate prediction an"d localization of significant weather, including high winds, heavy rain, fog, and cloud cover is of great operational utility to the" Navy. The PI~s recent work as shown that error growth in idealized forecasts of squall lines and thunderstorms are insensitive to the horizontal scale of the initial errors. He will investigate the avenue through which small-scale errors can be communicated to the larger-scale atmospheric weather pattern. The proposed research will extend his investigation to non-uniform environments taken" from observed events. He will also investigate error propagation across a wider range of scales, ranging between the thunderstorm s"cale and the scale of mid-latitude cyclonic storms. He will improve our understanding of the extent to which small-scale initial data is required to produce successful mesoscale forecasts is crucial to the use of the Navy s weather forecast tools in unfamiliar or data-denied regions. The ultimate goal of this research is to explore the extent to which high-resolution ensemble forecasts can be" initialized from lower-resolution global ensembles, so that operational systems may be developed that allow the Navy to more easily"" create well-calibrated high-resolution ensemble weather forecasts for unfamiliar, data-sparse regions.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Jul 07, 2017
- Source ID
- N000141712660
Entities
People
- Dale R. Durran
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy
- University of Washington