Information Bias and Uncertainty in Decision Making
Abstract
This proposed project extends our currently funded program of research on the effects of uncertainty on command decision making. Initially we have focused on the information acquisition and infererence phase of decision making regarding trajectory prediction. Our findings highlight the difficulty that individuals have in even understanding uncertainty that they have directly experienced. Furt"hermore, in our recent studies we have observed that participants exhibit a preference for additional information when confronted wi"th uncertainty ~ and that this preference for additional information extends to situations in which the ~cost~ of that information d"oes not exceed its value. That is, we have found that decision makers exhibit an information seeking bias, a sub-optimal information"#NAME?eculated that the presence of uncertainty triggers an uncertainty-avoidance impulse that results in excessive information search behavior.We also demonstrated that decision makers faced with uncertainty are susceptible to another heuristic similar to Tversky and" Kahneman~s anchoring heuristic. In exploring understanding of spatio-temporal uncertainty, we investigated decision makers predicti""ng the most likely future location of a moving target, as well as the estimated variance in that location. When we provided a displa""y of previous trajectories that were incongruent with that of an actual current item, we found that decision makers could eventually"" compensate for the misleading anchor with respect to their estimates of the most likely location. However, those participants recei"ving the incorrect anchor were not able to match the performance of unbiased participants with respect to estimating the variance or uncertainty in trajectory. We believe that the effort associated with ~unremembering~ the uninformative anchor creates a secondary task that interferes with learning about the degree of variance in information.Our findings are especially relevant to the contex"t of decision domains having denied and degraded environments (D2E). When information is sparse and difficult to acquire, an informa""tion bias will be problematic. Decision makers may have a tendency to delay responding too long, or to expend too many resources in"" an attempt to gather additional information. Moreover, when information is updated infrequently, then it becomes possible to become"" anchored on the first information perceived, and susceptible to inadequate adjustment especially to the degree of variance in the i""nformation. This can be particularly problematic, in that older information is typically less reliable in dynamic environments. When"" combined with a natural tendency towards over-confidence, these heuristics can lead to sub-optimal decision outcomes.We propose t"o extend our current investigation with the goal of understanding the causes and limits of information seeking bias in decision maki"ng. Uncertainty can manifest at any phase in a decision process: during information acquisition, analysis, or response selection. Th""ese phases of decision making emphasize different aspects of cognition, which in turn may have different implications for the impact"" of information seeking bias. For example, information acquisition typically places a high load on perceptual processors, whereas an"alysis may impose a higher load on our logic/conceptual processors. Understanding the extent to which information seeking bias manif"ests and can be mitigated within these different components has both important implications, and offers a prospective path to minimi"zing its deleterious effects.We anticipate development of visualizations that reduce the effects of information biases. We will al"so be able to provide guidance for training regimens capable of reducing susceptibility to bias. Finally, a deeper understanding of"" information biases will afford development of new decision support capabilities.We are seeking $633,000 for three years. We will" deliver the
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Sep 29, 2017
- Source ID
- N000141712825
Entities
People
- Charles O Smith
Organizations
- Colorado State University
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy