A Model for Linking Physiological Measures of Individual Health to Population Vital Rates for Cetaceans
Abstract
This project will develop a quantitative model to link a suite of sensitive physiological measures to population vital rates using health and monitoring data previously collected from multiple populations of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). This will be accomplished by collating data from bottlenose dolphin capture-release studies that have been conducted at a number of sites along th"e U.S. coast over a range of stressor conditions, as well as select health data from the Navy dolphin population. The data will be u""sed to develop a model, the Veterinary Expert System for Outcome Prediction (VESOP), to generate informed prognoses (i.e., probabili""ties of 1-year-ahead survival), as well as estimate probability of successful reproductive outcome for pregnant females. The individ""ual prognoses and predicted reproductive outcomes will be synthesized to predict population-level vital rates, and the model will be" calibrated using observed individual dolphin outcomes as well as population vital rates estimated from photo-identification mark-re"capture studies, to ensure optimal outcome prediction. The VESOP model, using bottlenose dolphins as a model species, will not only" support the definition of necessary transfer functions for future development of robust Population Consequences of Disturbance (PCo"D) models, but will also provide analyses to identify those physiological measures that best serve to predict vital rates, and are t""hus most important for monitoring population status. In addition, we will extend the VESOP results and consult with key experts to d""etermine the feasibility of collecting the identified priority health indices, and/or determine suitable surrogate measures, for spe"cific species of concern for the U.S. Navy. Where technology does not currently exist to allow measurement of these indices and suit"able surrogate measures cannot be identified, our model analysis will inform and help managers to prioritize future research needs.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Sep 29, 2017
- Source ID
- N000141712868
Entities
People
- Lori H. Schwacke
Organizations
- National Marine Mammal Foundation
- Office of Naval Research
- United States Navy