Phenomenological and Predictability Studies of the Structure and Evolution of Arctic Cyclones, Polar Lows, and Tropopause Polar Vortices
Abstract
Funds are provided to conduct fundamental research on 3 topics: 1. The role of incursions of warm, moist air from middle latitudes in disrupting the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV) and in reconfiguring the large-scale baroclinicity over the Arctic; 2. The influence of the reconfigurations of the large-scale baroclinicity, high-latitude ridge amplification and blocking, sea ice and snow cover boundaries, and radiative processes on the genesis and evolution of TPVs, Arctic cyclones, and polar lows; and 3. The dependence of the predictability horizons of TPVs, Arctic cyclones, and polar lows on model uncertainty on time scales ranging from synoptic to subseasonal. The PIs will use reanalysis datasets, in conjunction with deterministic and ensemble forecasts, produced by NRL. In addition to these Navy products, they plan to use MPAS (Model for Prediction Across Scales) in predictive and ensemble modes to investigate multiscale interactions between TPVs, Arctic cyclones, and polar lows. They will participate in the field program that will be conducted in conjunction with this ONR DRI by conducting analysis and forecasting, along with real-time monitoring, of the evolving Arctic weather regimes and events applicable to the objectives and hypotheses to be addressed in the field program.
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Jul 10, 2018
- Source ID
- N000141812200
Entities
People
- Lance Bosart
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- Research Foundation for the State University of New York
- United States Navy