Comparison of Polar and Midlatitude Cyclone Predictability Using Ensemble-based Sensitivity Analysis
Abstract
Funds are provided to conduct fundamental research to understand what physical processes limit the ability of numerical weather prediction models to forecast Arctic storms. The PI will apply a variety of ensemble forecast datasets to test hypotheses regarding the predictability of Arctic cyclone position and intensity. This research will test the hypothesis that the predictability of Arctic cyclones is similar to the predictability of midlatitude cyclones by compositing the ensemble standard deviation in Arctic and midlatitude cyclone position and intensity forecasts over many cases taken from the Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast Dataset Version 2 for various lead times prior to and during cyclogenesis. The sensitivity of Arctic cyclone forecasts to uncertainty in upper-tropospheric features, such as Tropopause Polar Vorticies (TPVs) and to diabatic processes will be investigated by applying the ensemble sensitivity method to Model for Prediction Across Scale (MPAS) ensemble forecasts. During the proposed Arctic field experiment, The PI will apply sensitivity analysis to operational ensemble forecasts, which could be used as guidance to direct observational assets that could reduce Arctic cyclone forecast variability. The final aspect of this project will investigate the role of uncertainty in the estimate of the sea-surface temperature and sea ice concentrations on Arctic cyclone forecasts. The outcome of this project will be a better understanding of what processes govern the predictability of Arctic cyclones, which will benefit U. S. Navy operations in the region
Document Details
- Document Type
- DoD Grant Award
- Publication Date
- Jul 10, 2018
- Source ID
- N000141812220
Entities
People
- Ryan Torn
Organizations
- Office of Naval Research
- Research Foundation for the State University of New York
- United States Navy